Archive for ‘Miscellaneous’

December 20, 2012

SC Global Privatisation

Straying slightly away from straight property market commentary, I’d like to weigh in on Simon Cheong’s bid to take SC Global private. For those who haven’t been paying attention to the news, here are the terms of the offer:

The all-cash General Offer price is $1.80, representing:

49.4% premium to the last transacted price before the announcement; and
39.5% premium to the highest closing prices in the 12 months prior to the announcement.

Reasons given for privatisation were the usual generic few: low liquidity, no requirement for market access, management flexibility and savings on listing costs.

October 6, 2012

MAS Restricts Loan Tenure for Residential Properties – What Does the Future Hold?

After several rounds of cooling measures, Singapore’s residential market has continued to climb in Q2 and Q3 of 2012. Thus MAS has stepped in once again, and as of today, borrowers will no longer be able to take loans of longer than 35 years. Given that the average tenure of residential property loans in Singapore is well below 35 years (29 years, according to MAS’ official press release yesterday), and bearing in mind that this average does not take into account the percentage of homes in Singapore that are fully paid-up, I don’t foresee this measure having a huge impact on the market.

September 27, 2012

Property investment – staying ahead of the curve

In the mutual funds universe, you have index funds on one end of the spectrum, and “special situation” funds at the other. The former simply track the market index, rising and falling in tandem with the market’s peaks and troughs. The latter, on the other hand, attempt to home in on unique upside opportunities and gain alpha.

As a property investor, you should try as far as possible to emulate the latter rather than the former. I draw inspiration from strategies taken by the fund manager behind a special situations fund I once invested in. He looked for themes that were on the uptrend, then dug beyond the obvious to seek out a more targeted vehicle for harnessing that trend. For instance,when he felt that international trade was set to boom, instead of banking on shipping stocks, he bought into ports, as the latter represented a more finite resource – you can have as many ships as can be built, but ports are strictly limited by geographical and administrative factors, amongst other constraints. Similarly, when he sought a means of investing into Asia’s growing need for infrastructure, he avoided construction companies, and went for the one key player providing the cranes to the many construction companies. This all took place years ago, but I reckon there is timeless wisdom in the investment style adopted.

September 10, 2012

Property market crash? – what you should be asking

If I had a dollar for each time I’m asked the golden question “is it the right time to buy?”, I’d have accumulated a tidy sum by now.

Similarly, if I were blessed with such prophetic vision, I’d probably be dictating this blog post to a personal assistant whilst sipping cocktails on some idyllic island resort in the Caribbean.

The thing is, a property bubble will mean very different things to different people, so it’s not so much a question of where the property market is headed (which nobody will be able to tell you will absolute certainty), but where are YOU headed?

Do you dream of bubbles? (Image courtesy of http://anchiix.deviantart.com/)

The Home Buyer

So much has been said about speculators who flipped properties they could ill-afford for fast profits in the heady days of 2007, but what of the other form of property market speculators that aren’t normally recognised as speculators - those that hold off their home purchases indefinitely in the hopes of a property market crash? Is it wise to hold off getting a permanent roof over ones head in the vague hopes of buying in “cheap”?

September 2, 2012

Over-exuberance in the industrial sector – Are we due for a commercial break?

I have hesitated to cover this topic for some time, as by my own admission, I am no industrial expert. However, given the high frequency with which clients and prospects have been coming to me waving attractive flyers and recounting killer sales spiels from commercial property agents they’ve encountered, I felt it necessary to at least highlight some key issues to consider before one takes the plunge into commercial property.

It’s always a bad idea to go into any investment sector when it seems like half the world including the taxi driver on your last ride into town is buying into it. A telling sign would be when the true industrialists are staying on the sidelines and renewing their leases, while the bulk of buyers appear to be virgin industrial investors. The industrial newbies are drawn by the promise of high rental yield, and seemingly cheaper pricing as compared to alternative real estate sectors, and of course the avoidance of additional buyer and seller stamp duties affecting the residential sector.

They appear to have completely ignored the fact that in the event of a sharp economic downturn, industrial property will be affected even more than the residential sector. According to URA reports, the median rental for multiple-use factory space (ie. B1 & B2) was about $2 psf/mth in Q2 2012. Given that there is currently over 23,000,000 square feet of factory space lying vacant, and another 49,000,000 square feet coming online over the next two years, one can only imagine what rentals will be like come 2014. (As my learned friend and mentor Mr Ku Swee Yong thoughtfully points out, the total lettable floor space at Vivocity Mall is about one million square foot.** So that’s basically more than 23 times Vivo’s total shop space going rent-less, with another 49 Vivos in the pipeline!)

August 18, 2012

Beyond psf- what’s your property’s bright-&-airy quotient?

In a recent Bloomberg article on Asian Millionaires taking charge of their own wealth, Akbar Shah, Head of Southeast Asia and Australia for Citigroup’s private-banking unit, describes real estate markets as hands-on markets that require a feel. I respectfully agree with her opinion. As I’ve mentioned on several occasions, both verbally and in writing, property analysis is more than just dollar-per-square-foot.

I’m struck by the number of times I’ve heard comments from clients like, “It’s pretty old, kinda rundown even… but somehow I just have a good feel about this place!” or “It’s a pleasant-enough place, but somehow it just doesn’t feel quite right?”

Obviously, when it comes to choosing a place to stay, there’s a wide spectrum of lifestyle needs, tastes and preferences. But one trait that almost all home-seekers unanimously favour in a home is the “bright and airy” factor. I believe this is something that contributes greatly to whether a home conjures up a feeling of spaciousness or not, perhaps even more so than whether a home is 1,200 square foot or 1,400 square foot. In a sense, this also echoes some of the principles of Fengshui – “qi” flows easily in a place that enjoys a good breeze and ample natural light, and in theory makes for a more auspicious home.

August 15, 2012

Press Release: CapitaLand Group to relocate to Westgate Tower in 2015

CapitaLand Group to relocate to Westgate Tower in 2015

Westgate targets to meet BCA Green Mark Platinum and Universal Design standards

Singapore, 14 August 2012 – CapitaLand Limited today announced that the CapitaLand Group will relocate to Westgate Tower progressively from early 2015. The Group will occupy 11 floors, a total of about 160,000 square feet (sq ft) of the new 20-storey prime office tower. The relocation will further enhance staff interaction and sense of belonging and provide for a holistic sustainable workplace so that it becomes more productive for all. This centralised destination for “work, live and play” will strongly motivate and integrate the Group as one united family-like organisation.

July 31, 2012

Stamp Duties – Who pays what, when, and how much?

From my daily dealings with buyers and sellers of Singapore property, along with enquiries from blog readers, there are a number of queries that constantly pop up on my radar (besides the perennial favorite, “How’s the market?”)

One area that has a lot of people confused is the different stamp duties introduced via the various cooling measures. Apologies to readers who are familiar with the stamp duty matrix and consider this stale, but I reckon the fact that I’ve encountered even senior conveyancing lawyers who aren’t too clear on their stamp duty facts suggests that this is an area that requires clarification.

July 14, 2012

Is the Singapore Property Market in Trouble? Part 2

Just to recap, in my previous post, I discussed the risk of additional cooling measures for the property market, which I think is low due to the demography of the people who are actually pushing up the housing prices here. In this post, I shall discuss leverage and interest rate risk.

Risk 2: Risk of US-style housing defaults due to falling prices

A primary cause of the housing crisis in the US is the high leverage that homeowners there have on their property. Leverage means the use of loans to finance purchases of assets. Leverage is good in the sense that you’re using OPM (Other People’s Money) to buy your property, which can significantly increase your return on capital. It also allows you to borrow money cheaply against your home’s equity. However, using loans requires you to pledge your property to the bank as collateral, and in the event that market value falls way below the loan amount, then the bank has the right to ask you to pay down a portion of your outstanding loan. If you were not able to comply, the bank has the right to take over your property and sell it in the market to recover their loan. Although you will get any excess after the bank and CPF board are paid, the amount is typically very little, if any, since this usually happens at the worst time when the market is down. Buyers of such properties are looking to buy at fire-sale prices, and the bank’s main concern is to cover their loan, rather than to try to get a good price for the property, so transaction prices tend to be low.

July 11, 2012

Psf, psf – are we too obsessed with numbers?

This might seem to be a drastically different stance from my last post on the dangers of being overly emotional when it comes to property investment, however, I come into contact with a broad spectrum of investors, buyers, sellers, and tenants in my line of work. My purpose is to provide a balanced commentary, and to help moderate potentially self-harming behaviours I come across.

As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, real estate, particularly residential property, is a very unique asset class. Even for brand new units direct from developers, units with exactly the same floor plan will have a slightly different view by virtue of the fact that 2 units cannot possibly occupy the exact same airspace, thus the views, elevation and orientation will be at least marginally if not drastically different.

I believe this is also why real estate contracts are one of the areas where specific performance can be ordered by the courts. I suppose it is recognised that sometimes monetary compensation simply cannot replace the enjoyment one obtains from owning a particular property.

If even homes with exactly the same layout can have nuances of difference, then is not rather artificial to compare homes on a per square foot basis? I can safely vouch by the sheer number of times I have people asking me, “what’s the floor size for this place, ah?”, that the average human being is unable to accurately gauge the floor area of a home. So why do we dwell so much upon this magic ratio of price to floor area?

I suppose it is difficult to quantify how pleasant or livable a space is in a strictly scientific manner. The pleasure one can potentially derive from a well-designed, ideally-located home is in fact priceless! But a good way to gauge the “homeliness” value of a property is how much a potential tenant is willing to pay to live in it. The irony is that transient tenants looking to stay in a home for a 2-3 year time line are, I think, a lot more focused on the value of a good home, whereas home buyers tend to get overly distracted by comparisons of numbers and ratios that may have little effect on the ultimate enjoyment of their homes.

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